First 100 Days: trying to make sense

Yesterday I had the opportunity to listen in on two perspectives of how and why the first 100 days of the second Trump presidency have unfolded. Global Head of Public Affairs & Co-Head of Global Impact, Ken Mehlman, and Executive Director of the KKR Global Institute, Vance Serchuk, shared their thoughts on these two items.

I would like to share with you several of their comments that resonated most strongly with me and after that let you know how their comments impacted my level of optimism for the near and longer-term.

• Trump and his team had 4-years to plan his strategies and gameplan for the first 100-days. They were much better prepared to advance his agenda than his first term. He also has "tailwinds" in the economy and global issues that allow him to more easily promote his ideas.

• His strategy is twofold- first, to use the concept of "opening bids" to his advantage and secondly to flood the market with so many things at one time that his Democratic opponents are on their heels and unable to form a plan of their own. Think 145% tariffs and annexing Greenland as ridiculous opening bids. Watch several news cycles to see the sheer number of executive orders and new ideas Trump delivers.

• Trump's approval ratings go lower by the week. That will only matter if he is unable to recruit good candidates for the mid-terms and if they go down in a larger than normal defeat.

• Speaker Johnson is doing a great job aiding Trump. With a slim 17-seat majority they are moving important pieces of legislature steadily toward early completion.

• DOGE's largest impact may not be in the immediate savings. The big savings may come in the years to come as Congress looks at payrolls and programs and loopholes and says a little at a time that things need to change. The trajectory of federal spending may forever be changed. Well, ok, forever is a long time.

• Tariffs are meant to be one leg of a three-legged stool according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Leg two is permanent tax reduction- making permanent the tax reductions found in the Tax Reduction & Jobs Act that is set to expire at the end of the year. The third leg is a big reduction in the "administrative state". The bureaucrats and managers behind the million and one federal rules and regulations. When all three are all at work, he is confident the economy will be more sound and more vibrant and will better fund a smaller government.

Still shell-shocked on some days, but I have to say I do feel a bit more optimistic that there is some method to the madness. Let me know what you think in the comments.

#first100days #tariffs